Forecast Table – November 2023
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This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the November 2023 Statement on Monetary Policy.
| Jun 2023 | Dec 2023 | Jun 2024 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2025 | Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Household consumption | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Dwelling investment | −1.1 | −1.2 | −0.3 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Business investment | 8.0 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Public demand | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Gross national expenditure | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Imports | 4.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| Exports | 9.8 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Real household disposable income | −3.0 | −2.0 | −1.1 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| Terms of trade | −12.7 | −5.5 | −2.7 | −4.5 | −2.8 | −1.2 |
| Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Employment | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Wage price index | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 5.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Consumer price index | 6.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
|
(a) Forecasts finalised on 7 November. The forecasts are conditioned on
a path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of
professional economists and financial market pricing. Other forecast assumptions: TWI
at 61; A$ at US$0.64; Brent crude oil price at US$84bbl. The rate of population
growth has been revised higher in the near term but is expected to gradually decline
to around its pre-pandemic average.
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA. |
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