Forecast Table – August 2023
- Download the Forecast Table 173KB
This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the August 2023 Statement on Monetary Policy.
| Jun 2023 | Dec 2023 | Jun 2024 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2025 | Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Household consumption | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Dwelling investment | −1.8 | −2.5 | −0.9 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Business investment | 5.2 | 3.4 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Public demand | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Gross national expenditure | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Imports | 4.5 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| Exports | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Real household disposable income | −2.9 | −0.1 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Terms of trade | −8.8 | −5.0 | −3.6 | −2.6 | −3.0 | −2.6 |
| Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Employment | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Wage price index | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour | 4.9 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 5.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Consumer price index | 6.0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
|
(a) Forecasts finalised 2 August. The forecasts are conditioned on a
path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of
professional economists and financial market pricing. Other forecast assumptions: TWI
at 61; A$ at US$0.66; Brent crude oil price at US$80bbl. The rate of population
growth has been revised higher in the near-term but is expected to gradually decline
to around its pre-pandemic average. Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA. |
||||||