Forecast Table – August 2022
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This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the August 2022 Statement on Monetary Policy.
| Jun 2022 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2023 | Dec 2023 | Jun 2024 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Household consumption | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Dwelling investment | −1.7 | 1.7 | 2.5 | −0.1 | −2.6 | −4.8 |
| Business investment | 1.6 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| Public demand | 6.3 | 3.6 | −0.5 | −0.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Gross national expenditure | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Imports | 5.0 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Exports | 2.3 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Real household disposable income | 3.9 | −0.9 | −3.1 | −0.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Terms of trade | 6.8 | 2.6 | −14.6 | −8.9 | −4.4 | −1.6 |
| Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP | 2.8 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| Employment | 3.2 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Wage price index | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour | 5.2 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Consumer price index | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
|
(a) Forecasts finalised on 3 August. The forecasts are conditioned on a
path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of
professional economists and financial market pricing. Other forecast assumptions: TWI
at 63; A$ at US$0.69; Brent crude oil price at US$94bbl. The assumed rate of
population growth is broadly in line with the profile set out in the Australian
Government Budget 2022–23.
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA |
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