Forecast Table – May 2019
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This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the May 2019 Statement on Monetary Policy.
| Dec 2018 | Jun 2019 | Dec 2019 | Jun 2020 | Dec 2020 | Jun 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| Household consumption | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Dwelling investment | 2.5 | −6.0 | −6.7 | −7.4 | −5.7 | −2.2 |
| Business investment | −0.2 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.7 |
| Public demand | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Gross national expenditure | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Imports | 1.5 | −1.3 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Exports | 4.7 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Real household disposable income | 0.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Terms of trade | 6.1 | 5.4 | −3.4 | −8.0 | −5.5 | −2.9 |
| Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Employment | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Wage price index | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Consumer price index | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
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(a) Technical assumptions include the cash rate moving in line with market pricing, TWI at 60, A$ at US$0.70 and Brent crude oil price at US$68 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Refinitiv; RBA |
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