Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2016 List of tables

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, three-month-average prices, per cent
Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities −14 −30
– Iron ore −20 −36
– Coking coal −5 −29
– Thermal coal −7 −15
Rural 0 −11
Base metals −6 −22
Gold −3 −7
Brent oil(b) −22 −40
RBA ICP −8 −24
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −9 −25

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate Per cent Most recent change
Euro area(a) −0.30 ↓ Dec 15
Japan(a) −0.10 ↓ Jan 16
United States(b) 0.375 ↑ Dec 15
Australia 2.00 ↓ May 15
Brazil 14.25 ↑ Jul 15
Canada 0.50 ↓ Jul 15
Chile 3.50 ↑ Dec 15
China(c) na   na
India 6.75 ↓ Sep 15
Indonesia 7.25 ↓ Jan 16
Israel 0.10 ↓ Feb 15
Malaysia 3.25 ↑ Jul 14
Mexico 3.25 ↑ Dec 15
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Dec 15
Norway 0.75 ↓ Sep 15
Russia 11.00 ↓ Jul 15
South Africa 6.75 ↑ Jan 16
South Korea 1.50 ↓ Jun 15
Sweden −0.35 ↓ Jul 15
Switzerland(b) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15
Thailand 1.50 ↓ Apr 15
Turkey 7.50 ↓ Feb 15
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09

(a) Marginal rate paid on deposits at the central bank
(b) Midpoint of target range
(c) China does not have an official policy rate

Sources: Central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over 2015 2016 to date
United States – S&P 500 −1 −7
Euro area – STOXX 8 −10
United Kingdom – FTSE −5 −6
Japan – Nikkei 9 −10
Canada – TSE 300 −11 −3
Australia – ASX 200 −2 −8
China – MSCI All China 2 −22
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −8 −8
– Latin America −11 −4
– Emerging Europe −4 −4
– World −1 −8

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2015 2016 to date
Russian rouble 24 7
Mexican peso 17 6
South Korean won 8 4
Indian rupee 5 3
New Zealand dollar 14 2
Philippine peso 5 2
Australian dollar 12 2
New Taiwan dollar 4 1
Chinese renminbi 5 1
UK pound sterling 6 1
Swiss franc 1 0
Indonesian rupiah 11 0
Swedish krona 8 0
Canadian dollar 19 0
Singapore dollar 7 0
Thai baht 10 −1
Brazilian real 50 −2
Japanese yen 0 −2
European euro 11 −2
Malaysian ringgit 22 −3
TWI 10 1

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
Percentage change since: Level
End December 2014 End September 2015 US$ equivalent (billions)
China −13 −5 3,330
Saudi Arabia −16 −6 604
Taiwan(b) 2 0 426
South Korea 1 0 360
Hong Kong 11 6 350
Brazil −1 −1 350
India 10 −1 325
Russia −6 0 309
Singapore −3 −2 245
Mexico −9 −2 167
Thailand 0 1 149
Indonesia −5 5 100
Turkey −13 −8 92
Malaysia −19 1 86
Argentina −4 −11 25

(a) Data to end December for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand; to 15 January for Malaysia; to 22 January for India, Russia and Turkey; to end January for Argentina and Brazil.
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets).

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; central banks; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2015 2016 to date
South Korean won −4 2
South African rand 19 2
Indian rupee −7 1
New Zealand dollar 2 1
Chinese renminbi −7 0
UK pound sterling −6 −1
Swiss franc −10 −1
US dollar −11 −2
Indonesian rupiah −1 −2
Canadian dollar 6 −2
Singapore dollar −5 −2
Thai baht −2 −2
Japanese yen −11 −3
European euro −1 −4
Malaysian ringgit 9 −5
TWI −6 −2

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
September quarter 2015 June quarter 2015 Year to September quarter 2015
GDP 0.9 0.3 2.5
Consumption 0.7 0.6 2.7
Dwelling investment 0.9 0.4 10.3
Mining investment(a) −9.7 −12.4 −28.9
Non-mining investment(a) −2.2 3.5 −0.1
Public demand −1.0 2.3 2.2
Exports 4.6 −3.3 6.5
Imports −2.4 0.1 −1.2
Nominal GDP 0.8 0.2 2.2
Real gross domestic income 0.3 −0.5 0.2

(a) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three-month ended Year-ended
September 2015 December 2015 December 2015
Total credit 1.9 1.6 6.6
– Housing 1.9 1.8 7.5
– Owner-occupier 1.8 2.2 6.8
– Investor 2.0 1.0 8.5
– Personal 0.2 −0.4 0.0
– Business 2.4 1.6 6.3
Broad money 1.5 1.3 6.1

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Interest rate Change over 2015 Change since July 2015
Per cent Basis points Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) (d)      
– Owner-occupier 5.63 −30 17
– Investor 5.90 −3 44
– Package variable rate(b) (d)      
– Owner-occupier 4.83 −25 16
– Investor 5.11 3 44
– Fixed rate(c) (d)      
– Owner-occupier 4.43 −65 −23
– Investor 4.70 −38 4
– Average outstanding rate(d) 4.86 −29 17
Personal loans
– Variable rate(e) 11.35 10 11
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 6.60 −50 0
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.47 −50 0
– Fixed rate(c),(f) 5.43 −35 5
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.62 −63 −10
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d) 3.92 −69 −4

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimates
(e) Weighted average of variable rate products
(f) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; RBA
Table 4.3: Equity Markets
Percentage change
2014 2015 2016 to date
Australia (ASX 200) 1.1 −2.1 −7.9
– Resources −19.0 −28.8 −14.2
– Financials 6.5 0.7 −10.3
– Other 6.1 6.5 −3.7
Europe (Eurostoxx) 1.7 8.0 −10.3
United States (S&P 500) 11.4 −0.7 −6.8
World (MSCI) 7.2 −0.7 −7.5

Source: Bloomberg
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
December quarter 2015 September quarter 2015 December quarter 2015 September quarter 2015
Consumer Price Index 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.5
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.4 0.2 – –
– Tradables 0.2 −0.1 0.8 −0.3
– Tradables (excl. volatile items and tobacco)(c) 0.5 −0.1 0.8 0.2
– Non-tradables 0.4 0.4 2.3 2.6
– Non-tradables (excl. utilities) 0.4 0.5 2.4 2.7
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.6 0.3 2.1 2.1
Weighted median 0.5 0.4 1.9 2.1
CPI excl. volatile items(c) 0.6 0.3 2.1 2.1
(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec 2015 Jun 2016 Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018
GDP growth 2½ 2–3 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 3–4
CPI inflation 1.7 1½ 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2015 2015/16 2016 2016/17 2017 2017/18
GDP growth 2½ 2–3 2–3 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.72, TWI at 62 and Brent crude oil price at US$35 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data

Sources: ABS; RBA