Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2015 List of tables

Chapters

Boxes

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities −6 −26
– Iron ore 0 −34
– Coking coal −18 −17
– Thermal coal −5 −9
Rural −1 −6
Base metals −5 −6
Gold −3 −1
Brent oil(b) 3 −45
RBA ICP −5 −19
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −5 −20

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA

Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate Per cent Most recent change
Euro area 0.05 ↓ Sep 14
Japan(a) na   na
United States(b) 0.125 ↓ Dec 08
Australia 2.00 ↓ May 15
Brazil 14.25 ↑ Jul 15
Canada 0.50 ↓ Jul 15
Chile 3.00 ↓ Oct 14
China(a) na   na
India 7.25 ↓ Jun 15
Indonesia 7.50 ↓ Feb 15
Israel 0.10 ↓ Feb 15
Malaysia 3.25 ↑ Jul 14
Mexico 3.00 ↓ Jun 14
New Zealand 3.00 ↓ Jul 15
Norway 1.00 ↓ Jun 15
Russia 11.00 ↓ Jul 15
South Africa 6.00 ↑ Jul 15
South Korea 1.50 ↓ Jun 15
Sweden −0.35 ↓ Jul 15
Switzerland(b) −0.75 ↓ Jan 15
Thailand 1.50 ↓ Apr 15
Turkey 7.50 ↓ Feb 15
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09

(a) The Bank of Japan's main operating target is currently the money base; China does not have an official policy rate
(b) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters;

Table 2.2: Greek Government Debt
As at March 2015
€b Per cent of total
Owed to official sector 233 77
Joint loans by EU governments 131 43
Bilateral loans by EU governments 53 18
ECB bond holdings(a) 27 9
IMF 22 7
Owed to private sector 69 23
Securities 40 13
Other 29 10
Total 302 100

(a) Mainly bonds acquired outright through the Securities Market Program; includes holdings by national central banks

Sources: Bloomberg; ECB; European Commission; Eurostat; IMF

Table 2.3: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over 2014 2015 to date
United States – S&P 500 11 2
Euro area – STOXX 2 18
United Kingdom – FTSE −3 3
Japan – Nikkei 7 18
Canada – TSE 300 7 −1
Australia – ASX 200 1 5
China – MSCI All China 28 10
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 5 −2
– Latin America −4 0
– Emerging Europe −8 3
– World 7 5

Source: Bloomberg

Table 2.4: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2014 2015 to date
Brazilian real 12 32
New Zealand dollar 5 20
Canadian dollar 9 13
Swedish krona 21 11
Australian dollar 9 11
Mexican peso 13 11
European euro 14 11
Malaysian ringgit 7 11
South African rand 10 11
Russian rouble 76 9
Indonesian rupiah 2 9
South Korean won 4 8
Thai baht 1 7
Singapore dollar 5 4
Japanese yen 14 4
Philippine peso 1 2
Indian rupee 2 1
Chinese renminbi 2 0
UK pound sterling 6 0
Swiss franc 11 −2
TWI 9 7

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.5: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
Percentage change since: Level
End June 2014 End March 2015 US$ equivalent (billions)
China −7 −1 3,694
Taiwan(b) 0 2 422
South Korea 2 2 362
Brazil −1 2 360
India 14 4 329
Hong Kong 4 1 324
Russia −28 1 302
Singapore −9 2 251
Mexico 2 −1 184
Thailand −4 3 152
Indonesia 1 −3 102
Turkey −10 −1 99
Malaysia −23 −4 92
Ukraine −39 3 9

(a) Data to end June for China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, and Ukraine; to 15 July for Malaysia; to 24 July for India, Russia and Turkey; to end July for Taiwan, South Korea and Brazil
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA

Table 2.6: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2014 2015 to date
New Zealand dollar −4 8
Canadian dollar 0 2
European euro 4 0
Malaysian ringgit −2 0
South African rand 1 0
Indonesian rupiah −7 −2
South Korean won −5 −3
Thai baht −8 −4
Singapore dollar −4 −6
Japanese yen 4 −6
Indian rupee −6 −9
Chinese renminbi −6 −10
US dollar −8 −10
UK pound sterling −3 −10
Swiss franc 2 −11
TWI −3 −7

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
March quarter 2015 December quarter 2014 Year to March quarter 2015
GDP 0.9 0.5 2.3
Consumption 0.5 0.8 2.6
Dwelling investment 4.7 3.9 9.2
Mining investment(a) −3.7 −4.2 −11.5
Non-mining investment(a) −3.5 1.1 −2.3
Public demand 0.1 0.0 −0.3
Exports 5.0 1.6 8.1
Imports 3.1 −1.6 3.3
Nominal GDP 0.4 0.6 1.2
Real gross domestic income 0.2 0.1 −0.2

(a) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 4.1: Long-term Bond Issuance by State Treasury Corporations(a)
Issuer
 		 Outstanding as at
end June 2015		 2014/15
issuance		 2015/16
indicative target
$billion $billion $billion
New South Wales 62 10 7
Queensland 87 11 7
South Australia 15 4 2
Tasmania 3 1 1
Victoria 34 2 2
Western Australia 34 10 10
All States 235 38 28

(a) Securities with an original term to maturity of greater than one year; figures are rounded to the nearest whole number; projections are based on the latest funding program forecasts for gross term issuance

Sources: RBA; State Treasury Corporations

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three-month-ended Year-ended
March 2015 June 2015 June 2015
Total credit 1.6 1.2 5.9
– Housing 1.8 1.8 7.3
– Owner-occupier 1.4 1.3 5.5
– Investor 2.5 2.7 10.7
– Personal 0.0 −0.2 0.4
– Business 1.5 0.3 4.3
Broad money 1.8 1.1 6.6

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

Table 4.3: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Level at 4 August 2015 Change since end January 2015
Per cent Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) (d)    
– Owner-occupier 5.46 −47
– Investor 5.73 −20
– Package variable rate(b) (d)    
– Owner-occupier 4.67 −41
– Investor 4.94 −14
– Fixed rate(c) (d)    
– Owner-occupier 4.56 −52
– Investor 5.02 −6
– Average outstanding rate(d) 4.71 −46
Personal loans
– Variable rate(e) 11.23 −9
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 6.60 −50
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.47 −50
– Fixed rate(c), (f) 5.38 −36
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.69 −50
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d) 3.79 −48

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimates; housing investor rates include all recently announced changes
(e) Weighted average of variable rate products
(f) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; CANSTAR; RBA

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
June
quarter 2015		 March
quarter 2015		 June
quarter 2015		 March
quarter 2015
Consumer Price Index 0.7 0.2 1.5 1.3
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.8 0.3 – –
– Tradables 1.1 −0.6 −0.3 −0.9
– Tradables (excl volatile items and tobacco)(c) −0.2 0.5 −0.2 0.4
– Non-tradables 0.6 0.8 2.6 2.6
– Non-tradables (excl utilities) 0.6 0.7 2.9 3.0
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3
Weighted median 0.5 0.8 2.4 2.5
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.5 0.7 2.0 2.3

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
June 2015 Dec 2015 June 2016 Dec 2016 June 2017 Dec 2017
GDP growth 2 2½ 2–3 2½–3½ 3–4 3–4½
CPI inflation(b) 1.5 2½ 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation(b) 2¼ 2½ 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2014/15 2015 2015/16 2016 2016/17 2017
GDP growth 2¼ 2¼ 2–3 2–3 2½–3½ 2½–4

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.74, TWI at 62 and Brent crude oil price at US$53 per barrel
(b) Based on current legislation

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table B1: Household Debt
March quarter 2015
Debt owed to Share Per cent(a) Year-ended growth
Financial sector 86 6.9
Australian government sector(b) 2 15.1
Rest of the world 3 10.8
Other accounts payable 9 7.5

(a) Of total household liabilities
(b) State and federal governments

Source: ABS