List of tables | Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2012

Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2012 List of Tables

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth
Table 2.1: Policy Rates
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Table 2.3: Change in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
Table 2.5: Change in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Boxes

Table B1: Timeline of Key Legislative and Political Events
Table C1: Recent Hybrid Issuance by Australian Banks

Table 1.1 Commodity Price Growth^(a)
SDR, per cent
	Change since previous *Statement*	Change over the past year
Bulk commodities
– Iron ore	3	0
– Coking coal	−21	−33
– Thermal coal	−14	−29
Rural	1	4
– Beef	0	1
– Cotton	−8	−24
– Wheat	4	30
– Wool	1	−13
Base metals	2	−2
– Aluminium	1	−7
– Copper	1	1
– Lead	13	13
– Nickel	3	−12
– Zinc	0	−2
Gold	4	−1
Brent oil^(b)	−6	−7
RBA ICP	−6	−14
– using spot prices for bulk commodities	−5	−10
(a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP) components except oil and bulk commodities prices, which are spot prices; latest available (b) US dollar terms Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2.1: Policy Rates
	Current level Per cent		Most recent change	Change from 2011 peak Basis points
Euro area	0.75	↓	Jul 12	−75
Japan	0.05	↓	Oct 10	–
United States	0.125	↓	Dec 08	–
Australia	3.25	↓	Oct 12	−150
Brazil	7.25	↓	Oct 12	−525
Canada	1.00	↑	Sep 10	–
China	6.00	↓	Jul 12	−56
India	8.00	↓	Apr 12	−50
Indonesia	5.75	↓	Feb 12	−100
Israel	2.00	↓	Oct 12	−125
Malaysia	3.00	↑	May 11	–
Mexico	4.50	↓	Jul 09	–
New Zealand	2.50	↓	Mar 11	−50
Norway	1.50	↓	Mar 12	−75
Russia	8.25	↑	Sep 12	–
South Africa	5.00	↓	Jul 12	−50
South Korea	2.75	↓	Oct 12	−50
Sweden	1.25	↓	Sep 12	−75
Switzerland	0.00	↓	Aug 11	−25
Taiwan	1.875	↑	Jun 11	–
Thailand	2.75	↓	Oct 12	−75
United Kingdom	0.50	↓	Mar 09	–
Source: central banks

Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
United States
	Since end 2011	Since late July
– Dow Jones	6	2
– S&P 500	11	5
– NASDAQ	13	3
Euro area
– STOXX	9	13
United Kingdom
– FTSE	4	5
Japan
–Nikkei	6	7
Canada
– TSE 300	2	6
Australia
– ASX 200	11	10
China
– China A	−4	−1
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia	11	10
– Latin America	5	5
– Emerging Europe	8	7
– World	9	6
Source: Bloomberg

Table 2.3: Change in US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
	Since end 2011
Brazilian real	9
South African rand	7
Indonesian rupiah	6
Japanese yen	4
Indian rupee	2
European euro	1
Swiss franc	1
Chinese renminbi	−1
Australian dollar	−2
Canadian dollar	−2
Thai baht	−3
UK pound sterling	−3
Swedish krona	−3
Malaysian ringgit	−3
New Taiwan dollar	−4
Singapore dollar	−6
South Korean won	−6
New Zealand dollar	−6
Mexican peso	−6
Philippine peso	−7
Majors TWI	0
Broad TWI	−1
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end October 2012
	Three-month-ended change		Level
	US$ equivalent (billions)	Per cent	US$ equivalent (billions)
China^(a),^(b)	45	1	3,285
Japan	−1	0	1,197
Switzerland	36	9	455
Russia	10	2	453
Taiwan^(a)	8	2	399
Brazil^(c)	1	0	368
South Korea	9	3	315
Hong Kong^(a)	11	4	302
India	4	2	260
Thailand^(b)	8	5	172
Indonesia	4	4	103
(a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets) (b) End September (c) Excludes intervention using currency swaps Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA; central banks

Table 2.5: Change in Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
	Since end 2011
South African rand	9
Indonesian rupiah	8
Japanese yen	6
Indian rupee	5
European euro	4
Swiss franc	3
US dollar	2
Chinese renminbi	1
Canadian dollar	0
Thai baht	−1
UK pound sterling	−1
Malaysian ringgit	−1
Singapore dollar	−4
New Zealand dollar	−4
South Korean won	−4
TWI	2
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; W/M Reuters

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth^(a)
Per cent
	June quarter 2012	March quarter 2012	Year to June quarter 2012
Domestic final demand	0.9	2.1	5.8
– Private demand	0.4	2.4	6.8
– Public demand	2.3	1.2	2.7
Change in inventories^(b)	−0.3	0.0	−0.3
Gross national expenditure	0.6	2.0	5.4
Net exports^(b)	0.3	−0.4	−0.8
GDP	0.6	1.4	3.7
Nominal GDP	1.0	0.4	3.2
Real gross domestic income	0.6	0.4	2.1
(a) Based on the June quarter 2012 national accounts release, rather than the 2011/12 annual national accounts (b) Contribution to GDP growth Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
Capital cities
	3 months to June 2012	3 months to September 2012	Year to September 2012
ABS^(a),(b)	0.6	0.3	0.3
APM^(b)	−0.2	−0.4	−0.3
RP Data-Rismark	−0.6	1.2	−1.3
Regional areas
APM^(b)	−1.0	−0.1	−0.3
RP Data-Rismark^(a)	−0.4	0.4	−0.3
(a) Detached houses only (b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
	Level at 8 November 2012	End July 2012	End October 2011
	Level at 8 November 2012	Change since:
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate^(a)	6.64	−0.19	−1.15
– Package rate^(b)	5.85	−0.29	−1.18
Personal loans
	12.91	−0.07	−0.36
Small business
Residentially secured, advertised
– Term loans	7.80	−0.20	−1.20
– Overdraft	8.67	−0.20	−1.18
Average rate^(c)	7.50	−0.20	−1.13
Large business
Average rate^(c) (variable-rate and bill funding)	5.46	−0.13	−1.56
(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates (b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans (c) Rates on outstanding, as opposed to new, business lending Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
	Quarterly^(a)		Year-ended^(b)
	June quarter 2012	September quarter 2012	June quarter 2012	September quarter 2012
Consumer Price Index	0.5	1.4	1.2	2.0
Seasonally adjusted CPI	0.7	1.2	1.2	2.0
– Tradables	0.6	0.7	−2.0	−1.2
– Tradables (excl volatile items and tobacco)^(c)	0.2	0.1	−1.3	−0.8
– Non-tradables	0.7	1.5	3.4	4.0
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean	0.6	0.7	2.0	2.4
Weighted median	0.7	0.8	2.2	2.6
CPI excl volatile items^(c)	0.6	1.0	1.8	2.4
(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS (b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median (c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
	Year to June 2013			Year to June 2014
	May 2012	August 2012	November 2012	August 2012	November 2012
Market economists	3.4	3.4	3.4	2.7	2.7
Union officials^(a)	2.4	2.0	2.5	2.5	2.5
(a) Excluding carbon price Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts^(a)
Per cent
	Year-ended
	June 2012	Dec 2012	June 2013	Dec 2013	June 2014	Dec 2014
GDP growth	3.7	3½	2¾	2¼–3¼	2¼–3¼	2½–3½
Non-farm GDP growth	3.6	3½	3	2¼–3¼	2¼–3¼	2½–3½
CPI inflation	1.2	2½	3¼	2–3	2–3	2–3
Underlying inflation	2	2½	2¾	2–3	2–3	2–3
	Year-average^(b)
	2011/12	2012	2012/13	2013	2013/14	2014
GDP growth	3.4	3¾	3	2¼–3¼	2¼–3¼	2¼–3¼
(a)Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.04, TWI at 77 and Brent crude oil price at US$104 per barrel (b) Based on the quarterly national accounts release rather than the recent annual release Sources: ABS; RBA

Table B1: Timeline of Key Legislative and Political Events
Year	Date	Event
2012	6 November	Federal elections for: – President and Vice-President – All seats in the House of Representatives – One-third of the seats in the Senate The existing Congress returns for a final session of government before the new Congress is sworn in
	31 December	Expiry of various individual income tax measures Expiry of the temporary reduction in payroll tax
2013	2 January	End of extended (emergency) unemployment benefits Automatic spending cuts from the Budget Control Act 2011 take effect
	3 January	New Congress sworn in
	21 January	Inauguration ceremony for elected President
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor; Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies

Table C1: Recent Hybrid Issuance by Australian Banks
Date	Issuer	Market	Issuance amount (A$ billion)	Issuance spread (bps over BBSW)	Reason for issuance as stated^(a)
Tier 1 Hybrid Securities
Sep 11	ANZ^(b)	Domestic	1.3	310	General
Feb 12	Westpac^(b)	Domestic	1.2	325	General
Mar 12	Macquarie^(b)	Offshore	0.2	n/a	n/a
Sep 12	CBA	Domestic	2.0	380	Redemption; general
Sep 12	Bendigo and Adelaide	Domestic	0.3	500	Redemption; general
Tier 2 Hybrid Securities
Feb 12	ANZ	Domestic	1.5	275	General
May 12	NAB	Domestic	1.2	275	General
Jul 12	Westpac	Domestic	1.7	275	General
(a) ‘General’ refers to general corporate purposes; ‘redemption’ refers to redemption of existing hybrid securities (b) At minimum interim rules Sources: RBA; company announcements