Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2008 List of tables

Table 1: World GDP
Year-average percentage change(a)
2006 2007 2008
estimates IMF forecasts(d)
United States 2.9 2.2 1.5
Euro area 2.9 2.6 1.6
Japan 2.4 1.9 1.5
China 11.1 11.4 10.0
Other east Asia(b) 5.4 5.6 4.9
India 9.6 8.6 8.2
World 5.0 4.9 4.1
Australia's trading partners(c) 5.2 5.1 4.4

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified. PPP weights have been updated to reflect the most recent data from the International Comparison Program.
(b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares
(d) Forecasts from the 29 January World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update where available, otherwise lowest of January Consensus and October WEO

Sources: CEIC; Consensus Economics; IMF; RBA; Thomson Financial
Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
Current level
Per cent		 Most recent
change		 Expectations for
next 6 months
United States 3.00 ↓ Jan 08 ↓ 100 bps
Euro area 4.00 ↑ Jun 07 ↓ 50 bps
Japan 0.50 ↑ Feb 07 No change
United Kingdom 5.50 ↓ Dec 07 ↓ 75 bps
Canada 4.00 ↓ Jan 08 ↓ 75 bps
New Zealand 8.25 ↑ Jul 07 No change
Sources: Bloomberg; central banks; Reuters
Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
Since 2000 peak Past year Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones 4 −4 −8
– S&P 500 −13 −9 −10
– NASDAQ −55 −9 −17
Euro area
– STOXX −23 −13 −15
United Kingdom
– FTSE −15 −8 −8
Japan
– TOPIX −26 −25 −17
Canada
– TSE 300 13 −2 −9
Australia
– ASX 200 61 −5 −16
MSCI Emerging Asia 52 18 −17
MSCI Latin America 245 19 −6
MSCI World −7 −8 −11
Source: Bloomberg
Table 4: Changes in the US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
Past year Since previous
Statement
Philippines −17 −7
Brazil −16 0
Canada −15 8
Australia −13 5
New Zealand −13 −1
Euro area −11 0
Switzerland −11 −3
Japan −11 −5
India −10 0
Sweden −8 2
Thailand −8 −3
Singapore −8 −2
Malaysia −8 −3
China −7 −4
Taiwan −3 −1
Mexico −1 0
UK 1 7
South Korea 1 4
Indonesia 2 1
South Africa 7 18
Majors TWI −12 2
Broad TWI −9 1
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Reuters
Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
Past year Since
previous
Statement
 Deviation
from post-float
average
South Africa 24 14 66
Indonesia 18 −2 146
South Korea 17 1 28
UK 16 4 3
US 15 −3 25
Taiwan 12 −4 28
PNG 8 −3 96
China 7 −6 40
Singapore 7 −5 1
Sweden 6 −1 9
Euro area 2 −3 −8
Japan 2 −8 0
Switzerland 2 −6 −9
New Zealand −1 −5 −8
Canada −2 5 −4
TWI 8 −4 18
Source: RBA
Table 6: Demand and Output
Percentage change
June quarter
2007		 September quarter
2007		 Year to September
quarter 2007
Domestic final demand 1.4 0.8 5.5
Change in inventories(a) −0.5 0.3 1.1
GNE(b) 0.9 1.0 6.0
Net exports(a) −0.2 −0.1 −1.9
GDP 0.7 1.0 4.3
Non-farm GDP 1.0 0.6 4.5
Farm GDP −13.0 24 −6.9
Memo item:
Real GDP adjusted for changes
in the terms of trade		 0.7 0.8 4.9

(a) Contributions to GDP growth
(b) Adjusted for the statistical discrepancy

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 7: House Prices
Percentage change
September
quarter		 December
quarter		 Year to
December
quarter
Sydney 1.8 2.4 8.0
Melbourne 4.8 3.4 18.1
Brisbane 4.1 5.4 21.6
Adelaide 5.1 6.0 20.2
Perth 1.6 0.9 1.1
Canberra 3.3 4.4 14.3
Hobart 2.2 3.7 11.1
Darwin 4.3 2.3 11.1
Australia 3.2 3.2 12.3
Source: ABS
Table 8: Volume of Farm Production
Per cent
Share of gross production Growth
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08(f)
Crops 45 −31 8
Cereals 17 −61 37
Non-cereal crops 29 −14 0
Livestock products 43 −5 −1
Farm GDP(a) −23 2

(a) Gross farm production less farm inputs

Sources: ABARE; ABS; RBA
Table 9: Labour Market by State
Trend measure, Per cent
Employment growth Unemployment rate
Year to December 2007 December 2006 December 2007
NSW 1.9 5.0 4.7
Victoria 3.1 4.8 4.6
Queensland 2.9 4.1 3.7
WA 3.6 3.2 3.3
SA 2.3 5.2 5
Tasmania 2.9 5.9 5.4
Australia 2.6 4.6 4.4
Source: ABS
Table 10: Financial Aggregates
Average monthly growth, Per cent
March
quarter
2007		 June
quarter
2007		 September
quarter
2007		 December
quarter
2007
Total credit 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3
Household 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.9
– Owner-occupier housing 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9
– Investor housing 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7
– Personal 1.0 2.2 0.0 1.0
Business 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.9
Broad money 1.2 1.5 1.0 2.2
Source: RBA
Table 11: Intermediaries' Variable Household Lending Rates
Per cent
Level as at
31 Jan 2008		 Change since:
End Oct 2007 End Jul 2007
Cash rate 6.75 0.25 0.50
Housing loans
Prime full-doc
Banks 8.07 0.40 0.65
Credit unions and building societies 7.89 0.34 0.59
Mortgage originators 8.07 0.34 0.69
Prime low-doc
Banks 8.39 0.36 0.71
Mortgage originators 8.53 0.36 0.78
Non-conforming 10.59 0.56 1.51
Personal loans
Margin loans 9.66 0.33 0.69
Standard credit cards 18.57 0.39 0.78
Low-rate credit cards 11.76 0.41 0.60
Unsecured term loans 13.89 0.46 1.28
Sources: Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Table 12: Intermediaries' Variable Business Lending Rates
Per cent
Level as at
31 Jan 2008		 Change since:
End Oct 2007 End Jul 2007
Cash rate 6.75 0.25 0.50
Small business
Term loans
Residentially secured 9.07 0.50 0.77
Other security 9.67 0.50 0.78
Overdraft
Residentially secured 9.79 0.57 0.85
Other security 10.69 0.57 0.85
Average actual rate(a) 9.31 0.50 0.73
Large business
Average actual rate(a) 7.64 0.42 0.73

(a) RBA estimate

Sources: APRA; Cannex; RBA
Table 13: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
Quarterly Year-ended
September
quarter 2007		 December
quarter 2007		 September
quarter 2007		 December
quarter 2007
CPI 0.7 0.9 1.9 3.0
– Tradables 0.2 0.3 −0.3 1.4
– Tradables (ex food
and petrol)		 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8
– Non-tradables 1.1 1.3 3.5 4.1
Underlying measures        
Weighted median 1.0 1.1 3.1 3.8
Trimmed mean 0.9 1.0 2.9 3.4
CPI ex volatile items(a) 0.7 1.0 2.6 3.0

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 14: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2008 Year to December 2009
August
2007		 November
2007		 February
2008		 February
2008
Market economists(a) 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.7
Union officials(b) 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.4
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 15: Output and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
Sep
2007		 Dec
2007		 June
2008		 Dec
2008		 June
2009		 Dec
2009		 June
2010
GDP 4.3 3½ 3¼ 3¼ 3 3 3
Non-farm GDP 4.5 3¾ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 3 3
Consumer price index 1.9 3.0 3½ 3½ 3¼ 3¼ 3
Underlying inflation 3.0 3.6 3¾ 3½ 3¼ 3¼ 3

(a) Actual GDP data to September 2007 and actual inflation data to December 2007. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.89, TWI at 69, cash rate at 7.0 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$86 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$90 per barrel.

Sources: ABS; RBA