Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2016-08 The Slowdown in US Productivity Growth: Breaks and Beliefs

Contents

• Introduction
• Model
• Estimation
• Results
• Implications of Lower Productivity Growth
• Robustness
• Summary and Conclusion
• Appendix A: Data Sources
• Appendix B: Model Equations
• Appendix C: Additional Estimation Results
• Appendix D: Can Our Estimation Recover Date Breaks?
• Appendix E: The Posterior Sampler
• Appendix F: Including Multiple Observed Wage Series in Estimation
• References

We would like to thank Heather Anderson, John Simon, Greg Kaplan, Peter Tulip, Mariano Kulish, Christopher Gibbs, Jarkko Jääskelä and participants at seminars at the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meeting for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The authors are solely responsible for any errors.