Research Discussion Paper – RDP 8302 Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment
August 1983
Abstract
This paper looks at the accuracy of economic forecasts and whether it is possible to rank different forecasters by their degree of accuracy.
The first section examines the accuracy of economic forecasts in general and by examining a subset of twelve Australian forecasters over a five year period.
The second section addresses the question of whether it is possible to rank forecasters in order of merit. The paper concludes that the problems are sufficiently large for it to be unlikely that a meaningful and stable ranking could be obtained.