Descriptions of Graphs for Speech by Malcolm Edey, Assistant Governor (Economic)
'Notes for a Talk to AIG Economy 2005’
3 March 2005
Graph 1: World GDP Growth
The graph has columns showing annual world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth from 1974 to 2004 as well as the February Consensus forecast for 2005. It also has a line showing the 30-year average for world GDP growth, which is around 3½ per cent. The graph shows that world GDP growth in 2004 was estimated to be around 5 per cent, which is the fastest rate of growth since 1976. Growth is expected to slow in 2005, but remain above trend at around 4¼ per cent.
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Graph 2: United States – GDP
The graph shows real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the US since 1990. There is a line showing the year-ended percentage change in real GDP and columns showing the quarterly percentage change in real GDP.
The graph shows that real GDP in the US has been growing since the 2001 recession. Growth was initially slow, but has since accelerated, and was just under 4 per cent over 2004.
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Graph 3: United States – Labour Market
The graph shows the monthly change in the payrolls measure of US employment and the weekly figures on initial jobless claims, from 1998 to the early part of 2005. It shows that US employment is growing at a fairly solid pace and that weekly new jobless claims have fallen significantly over recent years and are pointing to further healthy payrolls growth in the near term.
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Graph 4: China – GDP
The graph shows real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in China since 1999. There is a line showing the year-ended percentage change in real GDP and columns showing the RBA's estimates of quarterly growth.
The graph shows that growth in China remains very strongly, at just under 10 per cent in the year to the December quarter.
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Graph 5: Terms of Trade
This graph shows Australia's terms of trade since 1960. The graph shows that Australia's terms of trade has risen sharply over recent years, to levels last seen in the mid 1970s. A further rise of around 10 per cent is expected in the next quarter or two as price increases for coal and iron ore take effect, shown as a dot in the graph.
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Graph 6: Output and Demand
This graph shows year-ended percentage changes in output, as measured by GDP, and in domestic demand, as measured by GNE, from 1994 to 2004. It shows that growth in domestic demand has been running ahead of growth in output since the start of 2002.
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Graph 7: Business Conditions
This graph shows business conditions from the National Australia Bank survey on a quarterly basis from March 1992 to December 2004. This series is a net balance statistic and is shown as a deviation from its long-run average. The graph shows that after reaching a trough at well below the long-run average level in the June quarter 2001, business conditions have risen significantly and are well above the long-run average level.
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Graph 8: Consumer Sentiment
This graph shows the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index on a monthly basis from January 1992 to February 2005. It shows that sentiment rose strongly during mid 2003 to be around the levels of previous peaks, and then stepped up a little further in mid 2004. In early 2005, consumer sentiment rose again, to be at the highest levels in the history of the series except for the record level reached in June 1994.
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Graph 9: Unemployment Rate
This graph shows the unemployment rate, on a monthly basis, from January 1980 to January 2005. It shows that the unemployment rate has moderated significantly from its local peak of 7.2 per cent in October 2001, and at 5.1 per cent is currently at its lowest level in the period shown. The data are sourced from the ABS.
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Graph 10: Import Volumes
This graph shows the growth of the volume of Australia's imports since 1998. There is a line showing the year-ended percentage change in import volumes and columns showing the percentage change in quarterly terms. It shows that import volumes have been growing strongly in recent years, and were 13 per cent higher over the past year.
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Graph 11: Export Volumes
This graph shows the volume of Australia's exports (excluding RBA gold sales and exports of frigates) since 1990. It shows that export volumes have been broadly flat since 2000, after increasing solidly through the 1990s.
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Graph 12: Export Volumes
This graph shows the volume of Australia's exports (excluding RBA gold sales and exports of frigates) since 1990 for the four major components: resources; services; manufacturing; and rural exports. It shows that the flatness in exports over the past few years was widely spread.
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Graph 13: Difficulty Finding Suitable Labour
This graph shows the ACCI-Westpac and National Australia Bank business survey indicators of firms' difficulty finding suitable labour, on a quarterly basis, from March 1980 to March 2005 for the ACCI-Westpac series and to December 2004 for the NAB measure. It shows that both indicators have picked up sharply since their troughs in late 2001. The NAB survey measure is at its highest level on record, and the ACCI-Westpac measure is close to its highest level in the period shown.
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Graph 14: AIG Survey of Manufacturing – Selling Prices
This graph shows the actual and expected measures of selling prices from the Australian Industry Group's survey of manufacturing, from 1993 to December 2004. It shows that there has been a sharp rise in the proportion of firms raising selling prices or expecting to do so.
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Graph 15: Inflation
The graph shows inflation in Australia since 1992, based on the Consumer Price Index (excluding interest and tax effects). There is a line showing the year-ended percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and columns showing the quarterly percentage change in the CPI.
Over the period since 1993, when the RBA articulated the objective of year-ended inflation averaging 2–3 per cent, inflation has cycled around an average of 2½ per cent. After reaching 4.1 per cent in late 1995, inflation gradually declined to just over 1 per cent in early 1998, before eventually climbing to 3.4 per cent in early 2003. The final observation in the graph shows year-ended CPI inflation of 2.6 per cent in the December quarter 2004.
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