Description of Graphs for Speech by Malcolm Edey, Assistant Governor (Economic)
‘Current Issues for the Global Economy’
27 October 2003
Graph 1: G7 GDP Growth
The graph shows the year-average percentage change in Group of Seven Countries (G7) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1978 to 2002, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts for 2003 and 2004. There is also a horizontal line indicating the 30-year-average growth rate for G7 GDP.
In this graph there are three periods of sustained below-average growth: in the early 1980s, in the early 1990s and the current period. The IMF forecasts imply G7 GDP growth will return to around its 30-year-average rate in 2004, suggesting that the current downturn will be of comparable size to the early 1990s downturn, and less severe than the early 1980s downturn.
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Graph 2: United States – GDP
The graph shows real GDP growth in the United States from 1990. There is a line showing the year-ended percentage change in real GDP and columns showing the quarterly percentage change in real GDP.
The graph illustrates that the US experienced strong growth through the second half of the 1990s, but then entered a recession in 2001. US GDP has been rising since the December quarter 2001. GDP grew by 0.8 per cent in the June quarter 2003 and year-ended GDP growth currently stands at 2.5 per cent.
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Graph 3: United States – Retail Sales
The graph shows growth in US retail sales (excluding autos) on a monthly and year-ended basis from 1997. Following weakness early this year, retail sales growth has been strong since the middle of the year, with the year-ended rate picking up to over 7 per cent in September 2003.
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Graph 4: United States – Housing Indicators
The graph shows the number, in thousands, of housing starts and permits to build in the United States from 1997. The graphs shows that after some easing in 1999 and 2000, housing starts and permits have been increasing steadily over the past three years to be at very high levels.
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Graph 5: United States – Business Sentiment
This is a 2-panel graph, showing survey data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) from 1997. The left-hand panel shows the index of business sentiment in the manufacturing sector while the right-hand panel shows the index of business sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector.
The graph shows that, after weakening earlier in the year, both measures of business sentiment have increased sharply in recent months to be at levels that indicate a healthy expansion of activity. The non-manufacturing index is currently around the highest level since the inception of the survey in 1997, while the manufacturing index is around the peaks reached in early and late 2002.
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Graph 6: United States – National Accounts
This is a 2-panel graph, showing data from 1995. The top panel shows quarterly and year-ended growth in real household consumption, and the bottom panel shows quarterly and year-ended growth in real business investment.
The graph illustrates that growth in household consumption has remained firm during the recent recession and subsequent recovery, and stands at around 3 per cent over the year to the June quarter 2003. In contrast, business investment declined sharply during the recession, falling by almost 10 per cent over the year to the March quarter 2002, though has subsequently stabilised, and actually increased in the June quarter 2003 to be 1 per cent higher over the year
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Graph 7: Cumulative Reported Worldwide Cases of SARS
The graph shows the cumulative number, in thousands, of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) cases reported worldwide for the period between March and mid-July 2003 (when the outbreak was declared contained by the World Health Organisation). It is broken down into the number of cases occurring in Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong combined, China and the rest of the world.
The graph shows that the number of reported cases of SARS climbed steadily from mid-March to the end of May, and has remained flat since then. By the end of the period displayed, there were over 8,000 reported cases of SARS worldwide. The majority occurred in China, followed by Singapore and Hong Kong combined, with only a very small number occurring in Taiwan and the rest of the world.
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Graph 8: International Arrivals to Asia
The graph has four lines, showing the number, in millions, of international arrivals into China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan since 1999.
The graph shows that from 1999 to the end of 2002, arrivals into Singapore and Taiwan were essentially flat and under 1 million persons per month, while arrivals were steadily increasing into China, from around 6 to 8.3 million, and into Hong Kong, from just under 1 million to around 1.6 million. In early 2003, around the time of the SARS outbreak, each country experienced a very sharp fall in arrivals, but since June arrivals have been rising and have now returned to around their pre-SARS levels.
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Graph 9: China – Real GDP
This graph shows the year-ended percentage change in China's real GDP for the period December 1999 to September 2003. The graph shows that year-ended growth averaged a little below 8 percent until the end of 2002. It then increased sharply to almost 10 per cent in the March quarter 2003, before contracting to below 7 per cent in the next quarter. Year-ended growth subsequently rebounded to a little more than 9 per cent in the September quarter 2003.
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Graph 10: Japan – Real GDP
The graph shows real GDP growth in Japan since 1990. There is a line showing the year-ended percentage change in real GDP and columns showing the quarterly percentage change in real GDP.
The graph shows that year-ended growth in Japanese real GDP has cycled around an average of 1.6 per cent since 1990, with peaks occurring in 1990, 1996 and 2000. Following the most recent peak in December 2000, growth contracted sharply in the latter half of 2001 to reach its trough in March 2002. Real GDP growth has subsequently recovered to be 3 per cent in year-ended terms in the June quarter 2003.
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Graph 11: Japan – Unemployment and Prices
This is a 2-panel graph, showing data from 1993. The top panel displays the unemployment rate in Japan and the bottom panel displays the year-ended percentage change in the consumer price index (excluding fresh food and the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate increase in 1997).
The top panel shows that the unemployment rate in Japan has been consistently trending upwards since 1993, with flatter periods corresponding to the cyclical upturns in GDP growth in 1996, 2000 and 2003. Since September 2001, the unemployment rate has hovered around 5.3–5.4 per cent, but it declined to 5.1 per cent in August 2003. The bottom panel shows that inflation has generally trended downwards since 1993 and that since January 2000, Japan has been experiencing consumer price deflation. Between January 2000 and December 2002 consumer prices fell at an average annual rate of 0.7 per cent. However, the rate of deflation in consumer prices has eased since the beginning of 2003, and stands at 0.1 per cent over the year to August 2003, partly due to one-off factors such as rising medical expenses and a tax increase on tobacco.
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Graph 12: Real GDP
The graph shows the year-ended percentage change in real GDP for the United States and the euro area since 1988. The graph shows that GDP growth in both economies was quite strong in the second half of the 1990s, but slowed sharply in 2001. Since the end of 2001, US GDP growth has rebounded to be 2.5 per cent currently, while euro area GDP growth has remained subdued. After a modest pick-up in growth in 2002, growth in the euro area has fallen away to be just 0.2 per cent over the year to the June quarter 2003.
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Graph 13: Euro Area – Business Sentiment
The graph shows the level of business sentiment, relative to its long-run average, in the euro area from 1992. Business sentiment in the euro area has cycled around zero, hitting highs in early 1995, early 1998 and mid-2000, but has been below average since the middle of 2001. Business sentiment has picked-up strongly over the past couple of months, to be just below its long-run average.
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