Description of Graphs for Speech by John F. Laker, Assistant Governor (Financial System)
‘Financial System Stability - Some Current Observations’
16 May 2003
Graph 1: Banks' Share Prices
This graph shows the movements in banks’ share prices relative to the equity market as a whole in selected countries since the start of 2001.
For the United States, in particular, but also in the United Kingdom and Australia, banks have outperformed the broader index by a wide margin. On the other hand, Japanese banks have consistently and significantly underperformed the broader Japanese equity market. Reflecting recent problems, the overall movement in German banks' share prices was roughly in line with the market to mid 2003 – despite having been nearly 20 per cent higher than the broader equity market less than a year earlier.
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Graph 2: Banks' Return on Equity (After Tax)
This graph compares the annual after-tax rates of return on equity reported by banks in selected countries for the period 1997 to 2001 or 2002.
Banks in the United States and Australia have consistently reported returns on equity of around 15 per cent over the period to 2002. The picture in some European countries is more mixed, with improving returns in France and Italy – albeit from relatively low bases. This contrasts with a gradual decline in returns earned by German banks, which have fallen from around 10 per cent in 1997 to just over 4 per cent in 2001.
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Graph 3: Insurers' Share Prices
This graph shows the movements in insurer's share prices relative to the equity market as a whole in selected countries for the period since the start of 2001.
Insurers in the United Kingdom, Germany and Australia have underperformed the broader equity market by considerable margins – of the order of 40–60 per cent to mid 2003. At the same time, insurers in Japan have outpaced the broader market, while insurers in the United States have managed to keep pace with the market as a whole across the period.
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Graph 4: Australian Banks' Foreign Liabilities
The graph shows the proportion of Australian banks' total liabilities on their domestic books that are accounted for by offshore borrowings since 1990.
This proportion has steadily increased from around 10 per cent in 1990 to 25 per cent by end 2002.
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Graph 5: Credit by Sector
This graph shows the proportions of credit provided by Australian financial institutions going to each of the personal, housing and business sectors in the years 1990 and 2002.
While the proportion of personal lending has remained around 10 per cent, the proportion of lending for housing roughly doubled to 43 per cent in 2002; and credit to the business sector declined from 64 per cent in 1990 to 45 per cent in 2002.
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Graph 6: Corporate Sector Finances
This is a 2-panel graph showing data for 1980 to 2002. The left-hand panel shows the corporate sector's stock of debt relative to its gross operating surplus (GOS) and the right-hand panel shows interest payments by the corporate sector relative to the GOS.
The graph illustrates that, after rising sharply in the 1980s, corporate debt has since levelled out at around 350 to 400 per cent of GOS. Reflecting the marked fall in interest rates in the early 1990s, the interest burden of the corporate sector plummeted from a peak of nearly 60 per cent of GOS in 1990 to around 20 per cent in 1993. Since then the interest burden has oscillated around 20 per cent.
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Graph 7: Office Property Indicators
This graph covers the period 1980 to 2002 and superimposes a line showing an index of office property prices on a line showing office construction as a per cent of nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The graph illustrates that the increase in office prices and construction since about 1993 has been relatively muted. The office price index (June 1992 = 100) rose from around 80 to 110 between 1993 and 2002, office construction varying between 0.2 and 0.4 per cent of GDP over this period, and standing at around 0.3 per cent at end 2002. This contrasts with the sharp rise and fall in the two variables in the 1980s and early 1990s. The office price index rose from 30 to over 150 between 1980 and 1990. Office construction as a share of GDP rose from 0.2 per cent to over 1.2 per cent over the same period; this share had dropped back to 0.2 per cent by 1993.
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Graph 8: Household Debt and Interest
This is a 2-panel graph showing data from 1980 to 2002. The left-hand panel shows household debt as a per cent of household disposable income and the right-hand panel shows interest paid by the household sector as a per cent of disposable income.
The graph illustrates the sharp rise in household debt since the early/mid 1990s, from under 60 per cent of disposable income in 1992 to over 120 per cent at end 2002. However, with the marked fall in interest rates in the early 1990s, the interest burden faced by households has generally remained in the range of 6 to 7½ per cent of disposable income since that time, compared with a peak of nearly 9 per cent in 1989.
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Graph 9: Housing Loans Past Due
This graph shows data to end 2002 on housing loans past due as a per cent of total housing loans for each of banks (from mid 1994), building societies and credit unions (from end 1997), as well as for securitised housing loans (from early 1996).
The graph illustrates that for all groups, arrears on housing loans have been generally in decline over the period, and stand at very low levels (around 0.2 per cent of total housing loans) at end 2002.
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Graph 10: Distressed Assets of Banks
This graph shows one line representing the impaired assets of banks as a proportion of their total balance sheet assets for the period 1990 to early 2003. A second and higher line, starting in 1994, shows distressed assets – representing impaired assets plus loans on which payments are late but the facilities have not been assessed by the banks as being truly impaired.
The graph illustrates the very low levels of problematic assets of Australian banks over recent years – at less than 1 per cent of total balance sheet assets – and particularly by comparison with the asset quality problems of the late 1980s/early 1990s, when banks' impaired assets reached a peak of over 6 per cent in early 1992.
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Graph 11: Provisions for Bad and Doubtful Debts - Banks
This graph shows data for 1990 to early 2003 on the levels of banks' specific and general provisions for bad and doubtful debts as percentages of total balance sheet assets.
The line for banks' specific provisions shows a sharp rise in the early 1990s, peaking at 2.6 per cent in early 1992, followed by an equally sharp fall to be well below 0.5 per cent since the mid 1990s. The line for general provisions shows that banks have maintained these at around 0.5 per cent of assets over a long period.
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Graph 12: Risk-Weighted Capital Ratios
This graph shows the risk-weighted capital ratios of banks from end 1989 to early 2003, and those for building societies and credit unions from mid 1992 to end 2002.
After increasing during the early 1990s to around 12 per cent, the capital ratio for the banking system has – since about 1997 – reverted to its pre-existing level of around 10 per cent. By contrast, the building societies and credit unions have roughly maintained, or in the case of the building societies increased further, the higher ratios reached in the mid 1990s – both groups of institutions reporting ratios around or above 14 per cent since 2000.
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Graph 13: Securitisation of Residential Mortgages
This graph shows the proportions of residential mortgages outstanding that have been securitised in the United States and Australia for the period end 1988 to end 2002.
The graph illustrates that for both countries there have been marked increases in the proportion of residential mortgages being securitised over the period: from just under 40 per cent to over 60 per cent in the United States; and from negligible levels to nearly 20 per cent in Australia.
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