Description of Graphs for Speech by Glenn Stevens, Deputy Governor
‘Inflation, Deflation and All That’
4 December
2002
Graph 1: Australian Long-Run Price Level
The graph shows an index of Australian consumer prices from 1850 to 2002.
In the pre-World War II era, periods of both falling and rising prices occurred. By comparison, the post-war period shows a persistent upward trend in the price level. The 1970s and 1980s show the most rapid increases with a more gentle rise in prices since 1990.
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Graph 2: Australian Consumer Prices
The graph shows the proportion of categories in the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) with falling prices in each quarter from 1980 to 2002. Traded and non-traded goods are separately identified, within the total.
In the 1980s, an average of around 14 per cent of categories recorded price falls in any given quarter. Since 1990, an average of around 30 per cent of categories have recorded price falls in any particular quarter.
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Graph 3: Underlying Inflation
The graph shows the year-ended rate of increase in the weighted median CPI measure, for the period from 1990–2002. The graph highlights the 2–3 per cent inflation target which was introduced in mid 1993.
After falling from around 6½ per cent in 1990 to around 2 per cent in 1993, inflation has largely remained within the 2–3 per cent band. Over the past year, the weighted median CPI has risen by 2¾ per cent.
Graph 4: Inflation in Selected Industrial and Emerging Market Countries
This graph shows some characteristics of inflation outcomes for a group of 48 countries, classified by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as advanced economies or emerging market countries. The data are sourced from the IMF. The graph is made up of two panels for the period between 1970 and 2002. The top panel shows the 80th percentile; Median; 20th percentile; and lowest inflation for the sample of countries. The bottom panel shows the number of countries experiencing deflation in any given year.
The median rate of inflation for the sample of countries has fallen to around 2½ per cent, from around 6½ per cent in 1990. The 80th percentile rate of inflation is now around 5½ per cent, down from just under 25 per cent in 1990. Similarly, the 20th percentile inflation rate is around 1½ per cent, down from 3½ per cent in 1990.
In each of the past five years there have been at least three countries in this sample that have experienced deflation.
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Graph 5: World GDP Growth
The graph shows annual world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth from 1970 to 2001, and Consensus forecasts for 2002 and 2003.
Over the past 30 years, world growth has averaged 3½ per cent. In 2001, the world economy posted well-below average growth and is forecast by Consensus to do so again in 2002, before picking up to around average growth in 2003. This implies that the level of world output will remain below trend – i.e., there is increasing spare capacity around the globe.
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Graph 6: Inflation / Deflation - Two Scenarios
The graph shows two lines, representing the inflation rate under two scenarios.
The first line shows inflation continuing at 3 per cent for a period of time before dropping to 1 per cent. The second line shows inflation holding at 1 per cent before falling to -1 per cent.
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