RDP 2017-01: Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach Equation

e t,1 − α 0 + ∑ k=1 m β 1,k e t−k,1 + μ t,1 , e t,2 = α 0 + ∑ k=1 m β 2,k e t−k,2 + μ t,2 , …, e t,N = α 0 + ∑ k=1 m β N,k e t−k,2 + μ t,N MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaagCart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLnhiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=xfr=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@8E91@