RBA Annual Conference – 2005 Business Cycle Dynamics in OECD Countries: Evidence, Causes and Policy Implications

Table 3: Summary Statistics Concerning Growth Cycles in Selected OECD Countries
Band-pass filtered real GDP – 1970–2003
Average downturns (downturn to upturn) Average upturns (upturn to downturn)
Number of
downturns		 Duration
(quarters)		 Proportion
of time in
downturn
(%)		 Amplitude
(% points) 		Quarterly
amplitude
(% points) 		Number of
upturns		 Duration
(quarters)		 Proportion
of time in
upturn
(%)		 Amplitude
(% points) 		Quarterly
amplitude
(% points)
Australia 7 6.3 37.0 3.51 0.56   7 10.7 63.0 3.34 0.31
Belgium 10 5.9 48.4 2.55 0.43   10 6.3 51.6 2.61 0.41
Canada 8 6.3 43.1 3.09 0.49   8 8.3 56.9 2.95 0.36
France 6 8.3 46.7 2.35 0.28   6 9.5 53.3 2.23 0.23
Germany 6 9.2 46.2 3.14 0.34   6 10.7 53.8 3.14 0.29
Italy 9 6.1 45.1 3.09 0.51   9 7.4 54.9 3.04 0.41
Japan 6 6.5 32.0 3.88 0.60   6 13.8 68.0 3.57 0.26
Netherlands 7 6.4 37.2 2.58 0.40   7 10.9 62.8 2.66 0.25
Spain 5 7.2 34.6 2.49 0.35   5 13.6 65.4 2.05 0.15
Sweden 7 9.0 52.9 3.34 0.37   7 8.0 47.1 3.19 0.40
UK 5 11.0 46.6 3.76 0.34   5 12.6 53.4 3.11 0.25
US 6 7.8 41.2 3.66 0.47   6 11.2 58.8 3.41 0.31
Average 7 7.5 42.6 3.12 0.43   7 10.2 57.4 2.94 0.30

Sources: OECD Economic Outlook No 77 database; authors' calculations