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Bulletin – December 2016
Equation (1)
Pr
(
Y
i
,
t
+
1
=
j
|
X
i
,
t
,
Y
i
,
t
,
Y
i
,
1
)
=
exp
(
X
i
,
t
′
β
j
+
Y
i
,
t
′
γ
j
+
Y
i
,
1
′
θ
j
)
∑
k
=
1
4
exp
(
X
i
,
t
′
β
k
+
Y
i
,
t
′
γ
k
+
Y
i
,
1
′
θ
k
)
j
=
1
,
2
,
3
,
4
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