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Bulletin – March 2014
Equation (A2)
Δ
s
e
r
v
i
c
e
s
t
=
δ
1
+
δ
2
s
e
r
v
i
c
e
s
t
−
1
+
δ
3
m
t
p
t
−
1
+
δ
4
r
e
r
t
−
1
+
∑
i
=
1
4
θ
i
Δ
s
e
r
v
i
c
e
s
t
−
i
+
∑
j
=
0
2
ϑ
j
Δ
m
t
p
t
−
j
+
μ
Δ
r
e
r
t
+
ϕ
1
o
l
y
m
p
i
c
s
+
ϕ
2
S
A
R
S
+
ϕ
3
S
e
p
11
+
ϕ
4
t
i
m
e
t
r
e
n
d
+
∈
t
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